Description
SUMMARY:- This role will be responsible for the development, approval, quality and accuracy of the demand forecast for specific brands and aggregate input across brands to support the broader divisional S&OP process.
- This colleague will partner with the Sales, Marketing, Operations, and Finance departments to create accurate forecasts that represent the best thinking from all of the key stakeholders, and work across functions (Marketing, Sales Strategy, Customer Operations, PGS and Finance) to a support a mature Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP)Process.
- Responsible for producing accurate Factory and Consumption forecasts for specific brands/skus at a national level.
- Create, maintain and update statistical models and data in the forecasting system.
- Validate the history and model assumptions. Determine trends.
- Review and manage statistical model exceptions.
- Works closely with Marketing, Trade Planning, Account Planning, Display Operations and Replenishment to understand unique/changing business conditions and deliver accurate forecasts.
- Responsible for supporting managing broader PCH Sales and Operations Planning process.
- Drive account-level forecast review (AFRM) meetings to aggregate top account level input to the S&OP cycle
- Aggregate brand level inputs to portfolio view for a number of quarterly and annual processes including budget rollups, operating plan, and ad hoc analyses as required.
- Drive monthly reporting of Forecast Variance and Bias metrics to S&OP stakeholders.
- Compile and publish monthly brand level latest forecast estimate (LE) for PCH brands
- Must demonstrate individual leadership and neutralize functional biases when delivering fact-based forecasts. Able to demonstrate conviction to the forecasting process, inputs and outcomes.
- Present/review key changes in monthly meetings, highlighting significant impacts to Supply Chain and Financial projections.
- Tracks and analyzes forecast variance/bias and updates forecasts to continually improve forecast accuracy.
- Manages mini S&OP' meetings for specific brands to assist in maintaining smooth business operations throughout any short term impacts to brand inventory (sku transitions, supply shortages, remnant inventory, etc.).
- Develops scenarios and what-if analyses in conjunction with other functions as required
- Contribute to enhancements of PCH forecasting processes and systems, which include participating in requirements definition, performing system checks and tests and developing reports. Insures forecasting processes and methods are followed and updated as needed.
Basic Qualifications:
- Bachelor's degree, preferably in Mathematics/Statistics or Engineering/Supply Chain discipline.
- Experience: Min of (3-5 years) in the consumer packaged goods industry - especially the OTC market.
- Solid understanding of highly seasonal, highly promoted products and their behaviors.
- Experience using/analysing pos data and Syndicated Data. Knowledgeable in the different methods of consumer promotion, marketing techniques, and their influence on the consumer and consumption.
- Experience in demand planning or supply chain management functions.
- Previous experience with Demand Planning and Forecast Software solutions such as JDA, SAP, I2, Manugistics, or LogilityRILA, APICS or Certified Professional Forecaster Certification a plus
- Experience with Statistical forecasting techniques. Use of causal information to influence a forecast a plus.
- Demonstrated analytical and technical skills, comfort using multiple systems
- Analysis, Communication, Forecasting Experience